Laniakea · ‘Immeasurable Heaven’
A multi-generational investment horizon must underwrite mankind's expansion into the stars. Every galaxy we will ever contact converges in its final state towards the Laniakea Supercluster — representing the longest possible time horizon for humanity's future. Laniakea Partners publishes research for investors seeking to identify emerging global economic monopolies poised to thrive in the silicon age.
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PRINCIPLES
Value investing is not a style, it is the primordial framework to traverse through an uncertain market. Here, we add three novel valuation mental models to the corpus of value investing discourse.
A discounted cashflow picks one future, forecasts it and defends it. A probability-based valuation holds every future the business could have, puts a rough value on each and weights it by how likely it is. The valuation is the whole distribution, and it is re-weighted as evidence arrives rather than replaced.
An investment scenario with a bimodal outcome around cohort retention is shown with a wide but narrowing distribution of outcomes through time.
A company is an existing business plus the options its industry presents each year, and the market prices those options at zero or below. Three links decide what becomes of them. The industry's rate of change sets how many options arrive. Recognition, which follows incentive horizon and ownership, sets how many are taken. Management quality and culture set whether what is taken creates value or destroys it, and the misjudged ones tend to be the big ones.
A company that earns its cost of capital for ever is worth its liquidation value. Any premium on that value embeds a competitive advantage period: the number of years over which the market believes the business will earn returns above its cost of capital. A discounted cashflow buries most of its value in the terminal assumption. The superior approach is a reverse DCF with the following key sensitivities.
Variant Perception
These are the standing theses which we believe to be our guiding principles that sit behind every position in the portfolio and act as the lenses through which every new position is reviewed against.
Silicon-based intelligence will exceed biological intelligence. The companies enabling that transition trade under a fog of market skepticism, despite commanding the strongest economic positions of the era.
Corporations are hybrids of human and silicon intelligence. The leaders who compound are those who keep strategic autonomy and capital discipline while the machinery underneath them transforms.
Economies are splitting into oligopolistic price-makers and rent-takers. Emerging incumbents on the right side of that divide will capture disproportionate — and durable — profits.
Asset management is still run on the 20th-century paradigm. Lossy information flow through the research hierarchy and a limited capacity to adopt AI agents deliver structurally inefficient returns for managers relying on the traditional model.
Portfolio Highlights
Laniakea Partners is focused on finding extremely asymmetric opportunities with outsized returns relative to risk. Our portfolios have benefited from >5% allocation to the following companies which have each delivered more than 10x returns on investment cost. The result is a strategy that has compounded at >35% CAGR since 2018.
Entered when the market priced a vertically integrated energy-and-software company as a niche carmaker. The variant perception — manufacturing learning curves compounding under a software-defined vehicle — played out through the Model 3 ramp and the energy storage scale-up. A defining lesson in holding through drawdowns when the cost curve's physics is on your side.
Bought as a parallel-compute platform before the market accepted that neural networks were the workload of the era. CUDA converted a component vendor into the default substrate of machine intelligence, and the datacenter business re-rated it from cyclical chipmaker to infrastructure monopoly. The position that defined the silicon-transition thesis.
Underwritten when consensus saw a services firm with lumpy government revenue. The variant perception: the ontology — a live semantic model of an institution — is an operating layer, not a consulting artifact. Commercial adoption and AIP proved the leverage; the re-rating followed the model.
Accumulated as a commodity DRAM cyclical while high-bandwidth memory was a rounding error. Packaging and yield leadership made it the memory-bandwidth toll booth of AI training, converting the industry's most brutal cycle into oligopoly economics at the precise moment demand structurally inflected.
Research Vault
The Vault holds our complete research directory — every memo, model, and thesis update. Access is granted to serious investors by request. New updates are automatically added to our website from our research library as they become available.
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